JDU, HJC, Shiv Sena... Is BJP going to SAD-den Badals next?

I remember a report published in a leading daily, based on an astrologer's prediction that Narendra Modi would serve as the Prime Minister of India for two terms. The prediction might have been made before the 2014 General Elections were over, but the report appeared after the results were already out. So, the genuineness of the prophecy remains to be verified and it would be known after the next Lok Sabha polls only.

But it appears right to me also because the same astrologer had also predicted that the regional players, which have been playing crucial roles in government formation irrespective of the coalition in power - United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - and often resorting to blackmailing tactics to get what they want, would gradually become irrelevant.

Again, the extent of truth in the second prediction cannot be checked immediately. But it seems to be in the process already.

Though both UPA and NDA have been witnessing entry and exit of various regional parties, the practice seems to have intensified ahead of the assembly polls in Maharashtra and Harayana.

JDU walks out of NDA

For the ruling NDA it started last year, much before the general elections, with the Bharatiya Janata Party's old partner Janata Dal (United) parting ways, apparently over the ego clash between the parties' respective poster boys Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar respectively.

BJP slams door on HJC

The BJP roped in a number of new allies in the run up to Lok Sabha polls. Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) was one of those allies. But it failed to win any seat and the BJP decided to dump it before Haryana Assembly elections rather than conceding to the its "weak ally's" demand for too many seats.

Sena bids BJP adieu

The BJP's oldest ally - Shiv Sena - was the next to leave the bandwagon as its chief Uddhav Thackeray decided not to compromise with his chief ministerial aspirations after days of failed negotiations with the BJP.
Though the BJP has kept the option of post-polls alliance open (though officially denying it) by refraining from attacking the Maharashtra-based party, the latter has been unforgiving in its attack on the friend-turned-rival party. In fact, the Sena's attack on the BJP, at times, is harsher than on its two other main rivals Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), probably fearing to lose too many seats to it.
Keeping aside his ego, the Shiv Sena chief has even hinted an alliance with estranged cousin Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).

Ironically, the MNS was fallout of Uddhav's political aspirations as Raj was largely seen as the true successor to his uncle Balasaheb Thackeray - the founder of Shiv Sena. Moreover, the hopes of MNS joining the NDA in the run up to parliamentary elections were shattered by the original Sena, which was strongly against any tie-up with Raj.

Bad SAD

After doing it in the Lok Sabha polls, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has been repeating it in Haryana Assembly elections by choosing to campaign in favour of Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) candidates and attacking the BJP in the process.

The Akalis happen to be the original NDA constituent along with the Sena and the JDU, which are no more parts of the coalition. Despite BJP's repeated warnings not to support the INLD, SAD has been ignorant as the Badals show their commitment towards their old friends - the corrupt Chautalas.

The BJP has now fielded Navjot Singh Sidhu, who was denied ticket for parliamentary election from Amritsar at the behest of the Badals, to neutralise the SAD challenge in Haryana.

It would not be a surprise if the BJP snaps ties with the Akali Dal as the next step on the grounds of betrayal. Accusations of being radical and corrupt might act as the catalysts to the end of BJP-SAD tie-up.

In, out, in... out?

The general elections also saw return of two of the BJP's former allies - Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) - to the NDA.

Though Paswan had insisted that this time he would not exit the NDA, how long he stands by his words remains to be seen. Even the BJP might find it a burden when it comes to fighting the corruption taint given the unconfirmed charges against the Bihar leader. Even an opportunist Naidu's alliance with the saffron party cannot be considered very strong.

Depleting UPA

The UPA too has seen many exits, which started well before the Lok Sabha polls. Trinamool Congress and DMK walked out of the coalition foreseeing the UPA's bleak future. While the Trinamool emerged more powerful after the break-up, DMK suffered badly.

Pawar punch

As in the NDA, UPA too suffered a major blow ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly polls when Sharad Pawar's NCP walked out of it. The dream of becoming Maharashtra chief minister saw the NCP supremo's nephew, Ajit Pawar, ending nearly 10-year-old alliance soon after Shiv Sena and BJP ended their relationship.

Irrelevant BSP

The BJP gave Uttar Pradesh's both the strong regional parties - Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - a heavy blow in the Lok Sabha polls. While the BSP failed to open its account, the SP just managed to win its pocket-borough. The state's ruling party, however, improved its performance winning more seats than the BJP in the crucial assembly by-polls recently.

BJP versus Congress in 2019 polls?

Coming back to the prediction, the ups and downs in the UPA and the NDA gives strength to the likelihood of a two-party contest in future parliamentary elections, making the regional players more or less irrelevant in the national politics.
Though it might not sound that democratic in the world's largest democracy, but should be in the interest of the nation as the ruling party at the Centre would be saved from the arm-twisting tactics, often adopted by the regional allies. And, at least the BJP looks to be preparing itself well for it.

'Great Wall of Tibet' separates China and India

Chinese President Xi Jinping must have returned home with some unique (if not fond) memories, as well as some bitter, after his three-day India visit.

The trip, which started amid media speculations that Jinping would outdo Japanese regime’s commitment for investment to the tune of $38 billion in India, began in Ahmedabad with Prime Minister Narendra Modi ignoring protocols to welcome arguably the world’s most powerful leader in traditional Gujarati way in the land of Mahatma Gandhi. All through the Chinese leader’s visit, there were protests by Tibetans, who have been living in India as refugees for years. A group could achieve some success by breaching the security cordon as it tried to barge into the Hyderabad House in New Delhi while the one-to-one and delegation level talks were on.

Demanding independence is their right. But why at the cost of India, which has been sheltering over 150,000 Tibetans in exile for decades?

Even as the border disputes in Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh are often seen as the immediate provocation for the escalation in tension, diplomatic experts agree that Tibetans residing in India is the key reason behind the bitterness of its relationship with China.

The protests hogged the limelight despite the fact that the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama called Jinping an open-minded and realistic.

The Dalai Lama

Shouldn’t the 79-year-old Buddhist monk, who has been honoured with the Nobel Peace Prize 25 years ago, have appealed to his followers not to resort to the tactics that they did?

I have great respect for the Dalai Lama and sympathy towards the Tibetans who have been struggling for independence. But a visit to Dharamsala town in Himachal Pradesh, which is very much a part of India (and there is no boundary dispute over it with China or Tibet), a few years ago was an eye-opener to me.

Dharamsala is considered one of the biggest refuges for the Tibetans in exile in India with the 14th Dalai Lama himself having his abode in the McLeod Ganj suburb. But it was shocking to find that the Tibetan eateries or road side vendors would rather prefer not to entertain Indian customers as they looked forward to foreigners who might be the potential high spenders.

My experience reminded me of an Amitabh Bachchan blockbuster in which the villain says "dogs and Indians are not allowed" inside a club.
Had it been outside India, probably it wouldn't have hurt me so badly, but discrimination in India for being an Indian was a rude shock to me and the fellow visitors.
Coming back to the Tibetan agitation and about 70-year-old movement, the protesters shouted slogans against the Chinese president and urged the host prime minister not to hold talks with the former.
The protests, which were witnessed in various parts of the Indian capital, especially the areas dominated by Tibetans and the places visited by Jinping, do not conform to the comparatively softer stand taken be the Dalai Lama.
It is time India should make it clear that no community should take undue advantage of its liberal behaviour and cause it an irreparable loss.
Of course we still stand by our age old tradition of "atithi devo bhaw (a guest is like a god), but that doesn't allow the guests freedom to dent the host's own interests.

Floods achhe hain!

National disaster is becoming an annual phenomenon for the world's largest democracy, it seems. Last year it was Uttarakhand flash floods and this year the nation is battling, what is being labelled as "the hell in the heaven", a massive flood fury in Jammu and Kashmir.
But the calamity, which has simultaneously marooned many places in Kashmir Valley across the Line of Control (LoC), reminds of a punch line from a detergent ad: "daag achhe hain (stains are good)".
No calamity can be good for a country or its people. And, the flood in Kashmir Valley - the northern most state's worst disaster since Independence - is no different.

A temple inundated by the overflowing Tawi in Jammu earlier this week

But the calamity in case also has some positive facets. Despite it claiming nearly 300 lives so far and causing a loss of worth billions of rupees to public and private property, the Kashmir deluge has united India. Money and relief materials are pouring in from across the country.
Only a couple of years ago the valley was battling the menace of stone pelting and the ensuing firing by security forces. But the situation has totally changed. Lakhs of people have been stranded in various districts as swollen rivers have inundated the paradise.
People laud army
Leading from the front, the Indian Army has been rescuing people trapped in their houses, offices, community buildings and other elevated areas. Nearly 1 lakh people have already been moved to safer places by the teams of armed forces and National Disaster Response Force (NDRF).
The armed forces are indeed bringing smile back to people's faces. Locals have been thanking soldiers for their service. Social media has been abuzz with lavish praises for the security forces as people narrate stories of rescue of their near and dear ones in various parts of the valley.
It is a known fact that army columns were not rushed to Kashmir Valley from other states in the eventuality of the disaster, as it happens normally. They were already stationed in the state given the situation of terrorism and militancy in the state.
The army's role becomes even more significant given its opposition, particularly over the controversial Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). The state government has for a long been asking the Centre to repeal AFSPA, which has been in force since 1990 to tackle militancy in the valley.
However, the army stay put insisting it was still not the right time to move out of the valley handing over its security to the state police.
Not surprisingly, Kashmiri separatist leaders have been silent all these days, not making statement to the media about the flood situation in the state or army's efforts.
PM's 'cross-border heroism'
Realising the seriousness of the disaster, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a sudden visit to the state on Monday and announced a Rs 1,000 crore relief package. His prompt move compelled even his strong critics, including senior Congress leader Digvijaya Singh and Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, praising and thanking the PM.
Modi's gesture did not stop at this side of the Line of Control (LoC). Despite India itself struggling, he was quick to offer relief to Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). The move saw his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif expressing gratitude.
Social media saw it as "cross-border heroism" of Modi in response to "cross-border terrorism", backed by Pakistan state factors.
That left the mastermind of 26/11 terror attacks on Mumbai - chief of Lashkar-e-Taiba's front Jamaat-ud-Dawah Hafiz Saeed - with no option but to blame India for the floods in PoK.
Such expressions of solidarity - both by the army and the central government - would compel the people of Kashmir, especially those whose thinking might be influenced by separatists, feel that they too are Indians and those living across the border might see India as a friendly neighbour.
If that happens, 'floods achhe hain'!

Is BJP wary of Delhi's floating vote bank?

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has certainly mastered the art of sting operation, which it often uses to nail its political rivals or big corporate houses.
Genuine or not is a matter of investigation, but such sting operations do keep the humble Arvind Kejriwal and his young outfit in news.

A grab from AAP sting on BJP's Sher Singh Dagar (left)

The genuineness of the latest AAP 'Stinger' - purportedly showing Delhi BJP vice-president Sher Singh Dagar offering Rs 4 crore to MLA from Sangam Vihar Dinesh Mohania to abstain from voting in the eventuality of a trust vote in the House - remains to be seen.
The BJP not standing by Dagar strongly indicates the party might ultimately distance itself from the leader. Media reports quoting sources even suggested that the veteran leader might be shown the door, signifying the allegation against him could be true.
Dagar's expulsion from the party might reduce the impact AAP would have desired from the latest operation.
Nevertheless, the BJP seems to playing to a larger game plan. Going by a series of statements from its leaders at national and state levels, the party doesn't really look keen on forming government through horse-trading, as repeatedly alleged by the AAP.
The BJP actually seems to be buying time, an opportune time when it can confidently face the electorate.
Till a few weeks ago, there was no reason for the saffron party to worry as far as its position in Delhi is concerned. It would have probably secured seats beyond its expectation had the assembly polls been conducted with the General Elections.
No doubt Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his team are working hard to achieve their promise of "ache din". It has even started showing in some areas.
But the key issues - corruption and inflation - remain largely unaddressed. Moreover, India's recovering economy is largely the outcome of sentiments based on NDA's promises and some steps taken by the UPA government in its last few months, coupled with the stern measures of Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Having lost its government in 1998 owing to high onion prices, BJP knows that inflation, particularly of food items, might force a retreat of its floating vote bank, which helped it win all seven Lok Sabha seats in the national capital.
The last few years' trends suggest food prices are bound to ease to some extent after the end of monsoon season. It may take a few more weeks to make food prices a non-issue for the assembly polls.
The BJP apparently wants to wait for the arrival of achhe din before going for polls in Delhi along with the other election-bound states. After all, it can't afford to lose Delhi this time!

Qadir to Qadri, Imran Khan changes partner yet again

From being famous as a Casanova cricketer to doing some serious politics, Imran Khan has changed partners - both on and off the field - all this while quite often.

The legendary bowler, who dominated international cricket for nearly two decades, had switched over to politics hoping to ride on a wave of immense popularity he earned by leading the Pakistani side to its only World Cup victory in 1992.

But launching Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party in April 1996 could not do much as Imran might have had expected. The 61-year-old leader was looking for a threshold that could propel his political career to Pakistan’s corridors of power.

Imran had the company of world’s some of the best players, including Wasim Akram, Javed Miandad, Waqar Younis and Abdul Qadir in his campaign as a cricket captain across the globe. The legendary spinner, Qadir, helped Imran win many matches.

Circumstances forced Imran to sacrifice his nine-year-long marital life with Jemima Goldsmith, a British citizen by birth, in 2004, but Imran still failed to make much political gains.

Probably, the PTI leader lacked a winning combination in his political sojourn, as he had in his days of cricket. A couple of failed electoral campaigns, it seems, forced Imran to do something different.

Then happened the twin attacks on the Nawaz Sharif government this summer. Suddenly, PTI and Muhammad Tahir-ul-Qadri’s Pakistan Awami Tehreek (PAT) started hogging the limelight.

Tahir-ul-Qadri and Imran Khan

Though there was no declared pact between Imran and his apparent partner Qadri, their parties launched a two-pronged attack on the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government.

PTI and PAT simultaneously took up the Azadi March and Inquilab March respectively, aimed at uprooting the comparatively stable civilian government in Pakistan. The two parties’ sit-ins also started almost simultaneously in Islamabad.

Supporters of both the parties barged into the government-controlled broadcaster Pakistan Television (PTV), halting its programmes for some time and their respective leaders again almost simultaneously denied participation of PAT or PTI.

Some accused army chief General Raheel Sharif of being the architect of the agitation, which has been continuing since August 14, the day Pakistan was observing its 67th Independence Day. As the name might suggest, but Gen Sharif is not related to PM Sharif.

Pakistan Army as well as the parties concerned have vehemently challenged such reports, denying any underhand deal.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s National Assembly stood firmly by the embattled prime minister, terming the acts of PTI and PAT as “unconstitutional” and “undemocratic”.

It remains to be seen if Qadri would be able to help Imran realise his dream for power by destabilising the Sharif government as the first step.

Maoists on forced induction spree, children flee Jharkhand’s tribal villages

Doanti (name changed), aged around 16, has been making desperate calls to her cousin sister Kalawati (not the one who shot to fame after Congress heir apparent Rahul Gandhi made a surprise visit to her house in Maharashtra about a decade ago).

The tribal girl, who so far was proud of her independent life in her sleepy village tucked away in dense forests of Chotanagpur Plateau, just wants to run away from the place now. Not that Doanti is in love with a boy with whom her parents would not allow a nuptial tie or she is being forced to earn a living as a condition to continue in their house. The red terror, locally dreaded as “party”, has forced her to look for avenues away from home to lead a decent life.

The teen is among the hundreds, if not thousands, of young boys and girls – aged between five and 18 – who are being driven by the extremists of Communist Party of India (Maoist) in herds to force them into their training camps as “comrades”.

“The situation was not that bad till a few months ago as the area commanders would only seek volunteers to join their outlawed outfit, asking each household to part with one young family member or would even spare them after having getting little contributions in cash, food or shelter. But the villagers aren’t given a choice these days,” says Mayanti, who also hails from Jharkhand and works as a domestic help in Gurgaon, after the telephonic conversation of her friend Kalawati with the latter’s cousin.

Probably Maoism is not a movement anymore, as it happened to be when it was still recognised as Naxalism, which fought for social equality, not through democratic means but with guns.

Though Prakash Jha’s Chakravyuh painted Maoists as ideologists, who even compelled Kabir (Abhay Deol) – planted by Nandighat SP Adil Khan (Arjun Rampal) as an informer – convert into Azad for locals’ cause to resist government-sponsored land grabbing leading to mass displacement, the reality seems to be far from the movie. Doanti, a resident of Jharkhand’s Latehar district, requested Kalawati find her a job of domestic help as she wants to run away from her village (name withheld) fearing she might be forced to become a Maoist cadre.

Doanti, who happens to be the daughter of Kalawati’s stepfather’s elder brother and dropped out of school after spending early years in state capital Ranchi, hopes to be rescued by her cousin.

Many other girls her age, who were saved from the tentacles of child traffickers so far, now want to be employed as domestic helps or labourers in brick kiln from this tribal-dominated state out of the Maoists’ fear.

The creation of Jharkhand has certainly not helped these people of remote area which have been under the influence of red terror. Things have rather aggravated. It would be an irony if the Narendra Modi government, which came to the power after a thumping victory on the promise of security and respectable life to women and girls, doesn’t take note of the disturbing trend in Jharkhand and other similar tribal-dominated states.