I remember a report published in a leading daily, based on an astrologer's prediction that Narendra Modi would serve as the Prime Minister of India for two terms. The prediction might have been made before the 2014 General Elections were over, but the report appeared after the results were already out. So, the genuineness of the prophecy remains to be verified and it would be known after the next Lok Sabha polls only.
But it appears right to me also because the same astrologer had also predicted that the regional players, which have been playing crucial roles in government formation irrespective of the coalition in power - United Progressive Alliance (UPA) or National Democratic Alliance (NDA) - and often resorting to blackmailing tactics to get what they want, would gradually become irrelevant.
Again, the extent of truth in the second prediction cannot be checked immediately. But it seems to be in the process already.
Though both UPA and NDA have been witnessing entry and exit of various regional parties, the practice seems to have intensified ahead of the assembly polls in Maharashtra and Harayana.
JDU walks out of NDA
For the ruling NDA it started last year, much before the general elections, with the Bharatiya Janata Party's old partner Janata Dal (United) parting ways, apparently over the ego clash between the parties' respective poster boys Narendra Modi and Nitish Kumar respectively.
BJP slams door on HJC
The BJP roped in a number of new allies in the run up to Lok Sabha polls. Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) was one of those allies. But it failed to win any seat and the BJP decided to dump it before Haryana Assembly elections rather than conceding to the its "weak ally's" demand for too many seats.
Sena bids BJP adieu
The BJP's oldest ally - Shiv Sena - was the next to leave the bandwagon as its chief Uddhav Thackeray decided not to compromise with his chief ministerial aspirations after days of failed negotiations with the BJP.
Though the BJP has kept the option of post-polls alliance open (though officially denying it) by refraining from attacking the Maharashtra-based party, the latter has been unforgiving in its attack on the friend-turned-rival party. In fact, the Sena's attack on the BJP, at times, is harsher than on its two other main rivals Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), probably fearing to lose too many seats to it.
Keeping aside his ego, the Shiv Sena chief has even hinted an alliance with estranged cousin Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
Though the BJP has kept the option of post-polls alliance open (though officially denying it) by refraining from attacking the Maharashtra-based party, the latter has been unforgiving in its attack on the friend-turned-rival party. In fact, the Sena's attack on the BJP, at times, is harsher than on its two other main rivals Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), probably fearing to lose too many seats to it.
Keeping aside his ego, the Shiv Sena chief has even hinted an alliance with estranged cousin Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
Ironically, the MNS was fallout of Uddhav's political aspirations as Raj was largely seen as the true successor to his uncle Balasaheb Thackeray - the founder of Shiv Sena. Moreover, the hopes of MNS joining the NDA in the run up to parliamentary elections were shattered by the original Sena, which was strongly against any tie-up with Raj.
Bad SAD
After doing it in the Lok Sabha polls, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) has been repeating it in Haryana Assembly elections by choosing to campaign in favour of Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) candidates and attacking the BJP in the process.
The Akalis happen to be the original NDA constituent along with the Sena and the JDU, which are no more parts of the coalition. Despite BJP's repeated warnings not to support the INLD, SAD has been ignorant as the Badals show their commitment towards their old friends - the corrupt Chautalas.
The BJP has now fielded Navjot Singh Sidhu, who was denied ticket for parliamentary election from Amritsar at the behest of the Badals, to neutralise the SAD challenge in Haryana.
It would not be a surprise if the BJP snaps ties with the Akali Dal as the next step on the grounds of betrayal. Accusations of being radical and corrupt might act as the catalysts to the end of BJP-SAD tie-up.
In, out, in... out?
The general elections also saw return of two of the BJP's former allies - Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) - to the NDA.
Though Paswan had insisted that this time he would not exit the NDA, how long he stands by his words remains to be seen. Even the BJP might find it a burden when it comes to fighting the corruption taint given the unconfirmed charges against the Bihar leader. Even an opportunist Naidu's alliance with the saffron party cannot be considered very strong.
Depleting UPA
The UPA too has seen many exits, which started well before the Lok Sabha polls. Trinamool Congress and DMK walked out of the coalition foreseeing the UPA's bleak future. While the Trinamool emerged more powerful after the break-up, DMK suffered badly.
Pawar punch
As in the NDA, UPA too suffered a major blow ahead of the Maharashtra Assembly polls when Sharad Pawar's NCP walked out of it. The dream of becoming Maharashtra chief minister saw the NCP supremo's nephew, Ajit Pawar, ending nearly 10-year-old alliance soon after Shiv Sena and BJP ended their relationship.
Irrelevant BSP
The BJP gave Uttar Pradesh's both the strong regional parties - Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) - a heavy blow in the Lok Sabha polls. While the BSP failed to open its account, the SP just managed to win its pocket-borough. The state's ruling party, however, improved its performance winning more seats than the BJP in the crucial assembly by-polls recently.
BJP versus Congress in 2019 polls?
Coming back to the prediction, the ups and downs in the UPA and the NDA gives strength to the likelihood of a two-party contest in future parliamentary elections, making the regional players more or less irrelevant in the national politics.
Though it might not sound that democratic in the world's largest democracy, but should be in the interest of the nation as the ruling party at the Centre would be saved from the arm-twisting tactics, often adopted by the regional allies. And, at least the BJP looks to be preparing itself well for it.
Though it might not sound that democratic in the world's largest democracy, but should be in the interest of the nation as the ruling party at the Centre would be saved from the arm-twisting tactics, often adopted by the regional allies. And, at least the BJP looks to be preparing itself well for it.
